Election Day has come and gone and it’s still possible Mike Pence could send himself to the White House. As many of us expected, it’s Wednesday morning and we still don’t know the final outcome of the election. Trump and Biden both have a realistic path to victory and there is a very realistic possibility of an electoral college tie. And with a number of undecided races in the House and Senate there remains a possibility we could see Mike Pence as the Acting President on January 20th.
It starts with a tie in the Electoral College:
CNN’s current projections show Biden leading 224-213. If we assume each candidate’s current lead holds in all but one state (North Carolina), we end up with a tie. What once seemed extremely unlikely now seems like a real possibility:
Biden: 224 + Nevada (6) + Arizona (11) + Wisconsin (10) + Maine (3) + North Carolina (15) = 269
Trump: 213 + Alaska (3) + Michigan (16) + Georgia (16) + Pennsylvania (20) + Maine CD2 (1) = 269
Then the House needs to be deadlocked:
There are still a lot of races to be decided, but it is likely Democrats will maintain the majority and unlikely there will be a significant change in the size of that majority. Remember, the House will vote by state with 26 needed to select the President. Based on the races CNN has called, the Republicans have secured majorities in 24 state delegations. Alaska’s one race hasn’t been called, but will almost certainly go to the Republican. If Florida stays Republican, which looks likely, the Republicans will have the magic 26 needed to select the President in the event of a tie. While it’s possible Republicans could pick up majorities in Michigan or Pennsylvania, it is far from certain. Assuming they don’t, it would only take one state, and possibly even one Representative, to prevent a Trump victory. In this scenario both Wisconsin and North Carolina voted for Biden, but have Republican majority House delegations. They would certainly be pressured to not defy the will of their state by voting for Trump. It would only take one holdout to create a deadlocked House. This is a distinct possibility, especially with a likely popular vote lead for Biden.
And the Senate selects the Vice President:
It looks like the Republicans will hold the Senate majority but there is still a possibility of a 50-50 split. CNN is currently projecting 46 seats for the Democrats with 7 contests still in doubt. Democrats are likely to win Arizona. In Michigan the Democrat incumbent still has a shot at pulling out a victory. And if we assume Biden pulls out North Carolina, the Democrat is likely to win the Senate seat there as well. Alaska, Maine, and one of the Georgia seats are likely Republican victories. This would result in a 50-49 advantage for the Republicans. The last remaining seat, the Georgia special election, is certainly going to a runoff. If the Democrat wins that race, we have a 50-50 tie with Mike Pence casting the tie-breaking vote for himself. And with the House deadlocked he becomes the Acting President on January 20th.
So, here we are on November 4th and my crazy election scenario is still possible. I’d even go so far as to say it has become a realistic possibility.