On March 30, 1981 President Ronald Reagan was shot by John Hinckley. His survival put an end to a streak dating back to William Henry Harrison’s election as the 9th President of the United States in 1840.
At approximately 2:30 P.M. on March 30th, John Hinckley fired six shots, in less than two seconds, at President Ronald Reagan as he walked from the Washington Hilton to his waiting limousine. Quick action from Secret Service Agents and others nearby coupled with Hinckley’s frenzied shooting, resulted in none of the six shots hitting Reagan directly. But one shot, which ricocheted off the armored limousine door, lodged in his lung less than an inch from his heart. This was not immediately identified and the limousine was initially directed to the White House. When Reagan began coughing up blood, Special Agent Jerry Parr suspected a cracked rib and punctured lung. He redirected the limousine to George Washington University Hospital where doctors found the bullet wound and treated the President’s dangerously low blood pressure. He was stabilized and underwent a successful surgery. If not for the rapid response of the Secret Service Agents and immediate access to modern medical treatment, President Reagan would likely have died that day or shortly after. There are many interesting aspects to this event – John Hinckley’s obsession with Jodie Foster and subsequent insanity defense, the questions over who was in charge with Reagan incapacitated, the heroism of Special Agent Parr, and the eventual passing of the Brady Bill. Another interesting aspect of the failed assassination of President Reagan is that while he did not die that day, an odd presidential streak did.
Starting with the election of 1840, every 20 years the United States elected a President who would eventually die in office – four by assassination and three by natural causes. Of the 11 Presidents (prior to Biden) elected in the cursed years, seven have died in office (64%). Of the 281 others, only one2 has died in office (3%). While the sample size is probably too small to draw statistically significant conclusions, the difference in mortality rates is astounding. Here are the seven Presidents elected in the cursed years who died in office:
- Elected in 1840, William Henry Harrison died on April 4, 1841 of pneumonia, just 31 days after being inaugurated. Harrison was the first U.S. President to die in office. His successor John Tyler faced conflict and controversy as he establish the precedent for all future Vice Presidents who would ascend to the presidency.
- Elected in 1860, Abraham Lincoln was assassinated on April 15, 1865 by John Wilkes Booth, just six days after Lee surrendered to Grant at Appomattox, officially ending the Civil War. Lincoln’s death left Andrew Johnson and the Radical Republicans in Congress to battle over Reconstruction; a battle which would result in the first presidential impeachment.
- Elected in 1880, James Garfield died on September 19, 1881, 79 days after being shot by Charles Guiteau. Many historians believe he would have survived with today’s medical knowledge and technology. Candice Millard tells the fascinating story of Garfield’s assassination in Destiny of the Republic: A Tale of Madness, Medicine and the Murder of a President.
- Elected in 1900 (2nd Term), William McKinley died on September 14, 1901, eight days after being shot by anarchist Leon Czolgosz in Buffalo. He was succeeded by Theodore Roosevelt, who remains the youngest President of the United States.
- Elected in 1920, Warren Harding died of a heart attack on August 2, 1923. He was one of the most popular Presidents during his life, but since his death numerous political and personal scandals have come to light.
- Elected in 1940 (3rd Term), Franklin Delano Roosevelt died of a stroke on April 12, 1945, three months into his fourth term. Barring repeal of the 22nd Amendment, FDR will forever be the longest serving U.S. President.
- Elected in 1960, John F. Kennedy was assassinated by Lee Harvey Oswald on November 22, 1963 in Dallas. Oswald claimed to be a patsy and was shot and killed just two days later by Jack Ruby. A wide array of conspiracy theories surrounding the assassination of JFK continue to this day.
Some claim this pattern stems from a Native American curse (Curse of Tippecanoe or Tecumseh’s Curse) cast upon William Henry Harrison and future U.S. Presidents stemming from then General Harrison’s role in the Battle of Tippecanoe. By surviving his attempted assassination, Ronald Reagan broke the curse and George W. Bush, elected in 2000, survived his two terms. But is the curse truly broken, or were Reagan and Bush anomalies? The fate of Joe Biden, elected in 2020, may give us the answer.
Podcast: A dramatic telling of the aftermath of President Lincoln’s assignation.